my ($rating1, $rd1, $rating2, $rd2, $score1, $score2) = @_;
my $result = `/srv/foosball.sesse.net/foosrank $rating1 $rd1 $rating2 $rd2 $score1 $score2`;
chomp $result;
- my ($newr1, $newrd1) = split / /, $result;
+ my ($newr1, $newrd1, $likelihood) = split / /, $result;
$newrd1 = 30.0 if ($newrd1 < 30.0);
- return ($newr1, $newrd1);
+ return ($newr1, $newrd1, $likelihood);
}
sub calc_rating_double {
int score2 = atoi(argv[10]);
double mu, sigma;
compute_new_double_rating(mu1, sigma1, mu2, sigma2, mu3, sigma3, mu4, sigma4, score1, score2, mu, sigma);
- printf("%f %f\n", mu, sigma);
+ if (score1 > score2) {
+ printf("%f %f %f\n", mu, sigma, prob_score(score1, score2, mu3+mu4-(mu1+mu2)));
+ } else {
+ printf("%f %f %f\n", mu, sigma, prob_score(score2, score1, mu1+mu2-(mu3+mu4)));
+ }
} else if (argc > 8) {
double mu3 = atof(argv[5]);
double sigma3 = atof(argv[6]);
int score2 = atoi(argv[6]);
double mu, sigma;
compute_new_rating(mu1, sigma1, mu2, sigma2, score1, score2, mu, sigma);
- printf("%f %f\n", mu, sigma);
+
+ if (score1 > score2) {
+ printf("%f %f %f\n", mu, sigma, prob_score(score1, score2, mu2-mu1));
+ } else {
+ printf("%f %f %f\n", mu, sigma, prob_score(score2, score1, mu1-mu2));
+ }
} else {
int k = atoi(argv[5]);
my $q = $dbh->prepare('select *,extract(epoch from gametime) as eptime from single_results order by gametime');
$q->execute;
+# Combined log-likelihood
+my $cll = 0.0;
+
while (my $ref = $q->fetchrow_hashref) {
for my $user (($ref->{'username1'}, $ref->{'username2'})) {
if (!exists($ratings{$user})) {
$rd1 = foosball::apply_aging($rd1, $age1 / 86400.0);
$rd2 = foosball::apply_aging($rd2, $age2 / 86400.0);
- my ($newr1, $newrd1) = foosball::calc_rating($rating1, $rd1, $rating2, $rd2, $score1, $score2);
+ my ($newr1, $newrd1, $likelihood) = foosball::calc_rating($rating1, $rd1, $rating2, $rd2, $score1, $score2);
my ($newr2, $newrd2) = foosball::calc_rating($rating2, $rd2, $rating1, $rd1, $score2, $score1);
- printf("%-10s - %-10s: %u - %u, new ratings %u/%u %u/%u\n",
+ $cll += log($likelihood);
+
+ printf("%-10s - %-10s: %u - %u, new ratings %u/%u %u/%u [$likelihood]\n",
$ref->{'username1'}, $ref->{'username2'}, $ref->{'score1'},
$ref->{'score2'}, $newr1, $newrd1, $newr2, $newrd2);
$dbh->do('insert into single_rating values (?,?,?,?,?)', undef,
$dbh->commit;
$dbh->disconnect;
+
+printf "\nCombined negative log-likelihood (smaller value means a better model): %f\n",
+ -$cll;