use CGI;
use CGI::Carp qw(fatalsToBrowser);
require 'foosball.pm';
+use foosrank;
+no warnings 'once';
+
+my $dryrun = 0;
+if (defined($ARGV[0])) {
+ $dryrun = 1;
+ $foosball::initial_rd = $ARGV[0];
+ $foosball::c = $ARGV[1];
+}
my $dbh = foosball::db_connect();
$dbh->{AutoCommit} = 0;
-$dbh->do('delete from single_rating');
+$dbh->do('delete from single_rating') unless $dryrun;
my %ratings = ();
-my $q = $dbh->prepare('select * from single_results order by gametime');
+my $q = $dbh->prepare('select *,extract(epoch from gametime) as eptime from single_results order by gametime');
$q->execute;
+# Combined log-likelihood
+my $cll = 0.0;
+
while (my $ref = $q->fetchrow_hashref) {
for my $user (($ref->{'username1'}, $ref->{'username2'})) {
if (!exists($ratings{$user})) {
- $ratings{$user} = [ 1500, 350 ];
+ $ratings{$user} = [ $foosball::initial_rating, $foosball::initial_rd, 0 ];
}
}
my $rating1 = $ratings{$ref->{'username1'}}->[0];
my $rd1 = $ratings{$ref->{'username1'}}->[1];
+ my $age1 = $ref->{'eptime'} - $ratings{$ref->{'username1'}}->[2];
+
my $rating2 = $ratings{$ref->{'username2'}}->[0];
my $rd2 = $ratings{$ref->{'username2'}}->[1];
+ my $age2 = $ref->{'eptime'} - $ratings{$ref->{'username2'}}->[2];
+
my $score1 = $ref->{'score1'};
my $score2 = $ref->{'score2'};
- my ($newr1, $newrd1) = foosball::calc_rating($rating1, $rd1, $rating2, $rd2, $score1, $score2);
- my ($newr2, $newrd2) = foosball::calc_rating($rating2, $rd2, $rating1, $rd1, $score2, $score1);
+ $rd1 = foosball::apply_aging($rd1, $age1 / 86400.0);
+ $rd2 = foosball::apply_aging($rd2, $age2 / 86400.0);
- printf("%-10s - %-10s: %u - %u, new ratings %u/%u %u/%u\n",
- $ref->{'username1'}, $ref->{'username2'}, $ref->{'score1'},
- $ref->{'score2'}, $newr1, $newrd1, $newr2, $newrd2);
- $dbh->do('insert into single_rating values (?,?,?,?)', undef,
- $ref->{'username1'}, $ref->{'gametime'}, $newr1, $newrd1);
- $dbh->do('insert into single_rating values (?,?,?,?)', undef,
- $ref->{'username2'}, $ref->{'gametime'}, $newr2, $newrd2);
+ my ($newr1, $newrd1, $likelihood) = foosrank::compute_new_rating($rating1, $rd1, $rating2, $rd2, $score1, $score2);
+ my ($newr2, $newrd2) = foosrank::compute_new_rating($rating2, $rd2, $rating1, $rd1, $score2, $score1);
- $ratings{$ref->{'username1'}} = [ $newr1, $newrd1 ];
- $ratings{$ref->{'username2'}} = [ $newr2, $newrd2 ];
+ $cll += log($likelihood);
+
+ unless ($dryrun) {
+ printf("%-10s - %-10s: %u - %u, new ratings %u/%u %u/%u [$likelihood]\n",
+ $ref->{'username1'}, $ref->{'username2'}, $ref->{'score1'},
+ $ref->{'score2'}, $newr1, $newrd1, $newr2, $newrd2);
+ $dbh->do('insert into single_rating values (?,?,?,?,?)', undef,
+ $ref->{'username1'}, $ref->{'gametime'}, $newr1, $newrd1, $newr1-$rating1);
+ $dbh->do('insert into single_rating values (?,?,?,?,?)', undef,
+ $ref->{'username2'}, $ref->{'gametime'}, $newr2, $newrd2, $newr2-$rating2);
+ }
+
+ $ratings{$ref->{'username1'}} = [ $newr1, $newrd1, $ref->{'eptime'} ];
+ $ratings{$ref->{'username2'}} = [ $newr2, $newrd2, $ref->{'eptime'} ];
}
-$dbh->commit;
+$dbh->commit unless $dryrun;
$dbh->disconnect;
+
+printf "\nCombined negative log-likelihood (smaller value means a better model): %f\n",
+ -$cll;