Adjusted initial parameters for maximum prediction power; in particular,

[foosball] / recalc-double-result.pl

diff --git a/recalc-double-result.pl b/recalc-double-result.pl
index 388a177c61f553aa275cd23580fbcb450e3c5a04..4e20c15457b0da0f75dfe25ba0569de1da1d533a 100755 (executable)
--- a/recalc-double-result.pl
+++ b/recalc-double-result.pl
@@ -19,7 +19,7 @@ while (my $ref = $q->fetchrow_hashref) {
        for my $user (($ref->{'team1_username1'}, $ref->{'team1_username2'},
                       $ref->{'team2_username1'}, $ref->{'team2_username2'})) {
                if (!exists($ratings{$user})) {
-                       $ratings{$user} = [ 1500, 350, 0 ];
+                       $ratings{$user} = [ $foosball::initial_rating, $foosball::initial_rd, 0 ];
                }
        }
        
@@ -47,21 +47,10 @@ while (my $ref = $q->fetchrow_hashref) {
        my $score1 = $ref->{'score1'};
        my $score2 = $ref->{'score2'};
 
-       # make virtual "team players"
-       my ($rating_team1, $rd_team1) = foosball::combine_ratings($rating1_1, $rd1_1, $rating1_2, $rd1_2);
-       my ($rating_team2, $rd_team2) = foosball::combine_ratings($rating2_1, $rd2_1, $rating2_2, $rd2_2);
-
-       my ($new_t1r, undef) =  foosball::calc_rating($rating_team1, $rd_team1, $rating_team2, $rd_team2, $score1, $score2);
-       my ($new_t2r, undef) =  foosball::calc_rating($rating_team2, $rd_team2, $rating_team1, $rd_team1, $score2, $score1);
-       my $newr1_1 = $rating1_1 + ($new_t1r - $rating_team1);
-       my $newr1_2 = $rating1_2 + ($new_t1r - $rating_team1);
-       my $newr2_1 = $rating2_1 + ($new_t2r - $rating_team2);
-       my $newr2_2 = $rating2_2 + ($new_t2r - $rating_team2);
-
-       my (undef, $newrd1_1) = foosball::calc_rating($rating1_1, $rd1_1, $rating_team2, $rd_team2, $score1, $score2);
-       my (undef, $newrd1_2) = foosball::calc_rating($rating1_2, $rd1_2, $rating_team2, $rd_team2, $score1, $score2);
-       my (undef, $newrd2_1) = foosball::calc_rating($rating2_1, $rd2_1, $rating_team1, $rd_team1, $score2, $score1);
-       my (undef, $newrd2_2) = foosball::calc_rating($rating2_2, $rd2_2, $rating_team1, $rd_team1, $score2, $score1);
+       my ($newr1_1, $newrd1_1) = foosball::calc_rating_double($rating1_1, $rd1_1, $rating1_2, $rd1_2, $rating2_1, $rd2_1, $rating2_2, $rd2_2, $score1, $score2);
+       my ($newr1_2, $newrd1_2) = foosball::calc_rating_double($rating1_2, $rd1_2, $rating1_1, $rd1_1, $rating2_1, $rd2_1, $rating2_2, $rd2_2, $score1, $score2);
+       my ($newr2_1, $newrd2_1) = foosball::calc_rating_double($rating2_1, $rd2_1, $rating2_2, $rd2_2, $rating1_1, $rd1_1, $rating1_2, $rd1_2, $score2, $score1);
+       my ($newr2_2, $newrd2_2) = foosball::calc_rating_double($rating2_2, $rd2_2, $rating2_1, $rd2_1, $rating1_1, $rd1_1, $rating1_2, $rd1_2, $score2, $score1);
 
        printf("%-10s/%-10s - %-10s/%-10s: %u - %u, new ratings %u/%u %u/%u   %u/%u %u/%u\n",
                $ref->{'team1_username1'}, $ref->{'team1_username2'},
@@ -69,14 +58,14 @@ while (my $ref = $q->fetchrow_hashref) {
                $ref->{'score1'}, $ref->{'score2'},
                $newr1_1, $newrd1_1, $newr1_2, $newrd1_2,
                $newr2_1, $newrd2_1, $newr2_2, $newrd2_2);
-       $dbh->do('insert into double_rating values (?,?,?,?)', undef,
-               $ref->{'team1_username1'}, $ref->{'gametime'}, $newr1_1, $newrd1_1);
-       $dbh->do('insert into double_rating values (?,?,?,?)', undef,
-               $ref->{'team1_username2'}, $ref->{'gametime'}, $newr1_2, $newrd1_2);
-       $dbh->do('insert into double_rating values (?,?,?,?)', undef,
-               $ref->{'team2_username1'}, $ref->{'gametime'}, $newr2_1, $newrd2_1);
-       $dbh->do('insert into double_rating values (?,?,?,?)', undef,
-               $ref->{'team2_username2'}, $ref->{'gametime'}, $newr2_2, $newrd2_2);
+       $dbh->do('insert into double_rating values (?,?,?,?,?)', undef,
+               $ref->{'team1_username1'}, $ref->{'gametime'}, $newr1_1, $newrd1_1, $newr1_1-$rating1_1);
+       $dbh->do('insert into double_rating values (?,?,?,?,?)', undef,
+               $ref->{'team1_username2'}, $ref->{'gametime'}, $newr1_2, $newrd1_2, $newr1_2-$rating1_2);
+       $dbh->do('insert into double_rating values (?,?,?,?,?)', undef,
+               $ref->{'team2_username1'}, $ref->{'gametime'}, $newr2_1, $newrd2_1, $newr2_1-$rating2_1);
+       $dbh->do('insert into double_rating values (?,?,?,?,?)', undef,
+               $ref->{'team2_username2'}, $ref->{'gametime'}, $newr2_2, $newrd2_2, $newr2_2-$rating2_2);
 
        $ratings{$ref->{'team1_username1'}} = [ $newr1_1, $newrd1_1, $ref->{'eptime'} ];
        $ratings{$ref->{'team1_username2'}} = [ $newr1_2, $newrd1_2, $ref->{'eptime'} ];