Adjusted initial parameters for maximum prediction power; in particular,

[foosball] / recalc-double-result.pl

diff --git a/recalc-double-result.pl b/recalc-double-result.pl
index 7395800b15a2820207f41f24cab4f07f554c8852..4e20c15457b0da0f75dfe25ba0569de1da1d533a 100755 (executable)
--- a/recalc-double-result.pl
+++ b/recalc-double-result.pl
@@ -12,45 +12,45 @@ $dbh->{AutoCommit} = 0;
 $dbh->do('delete from double_rating');
 
 my %ratings = ();
-my $q = $dbh->prepare('select * from double_results order by gametime');
+my $q = $dbh->prepare('select *,extract(epoch from gametime) as eptime from double_results order by gametime');
 $q->execute;
 
 while (my $ref = $q->fetchrow_hashref) {
        for my $user (($ref->{'team1_username1'}, $ref->{'team1_username2'},
                       $ref->{'team2_username1'}, $ref->{'team2_username2'})) {
                if (!exists($ratings{$user})) {
-                       $ratings{$user} = [ 1500, 350 ];
+                       $ratings{$user} = [ $foosball::initial_rating, $foosball::initial_rd, 0 ];
                }
        }
        
        my $rating1_1 = $ratings{$ref->{'team1_username1'}}->[0];
        my $rd1_1 = $ratings{$ref->{'team1_username1'}}->[1];
+       my $age1_1 = $ref->{'eptime'} - $ratings{$ref->{'team1_username1'}}->[2];
+
        my $rating1_2 = $ratings{$ref->{'team1_username2'}}->[0];
        my $rd1_2 = $ratings{$ref->{'team1_username2'}}->[1];
+       my $age1_2 = $ref->{'eptime'} - $ratings{$ref->{'team1_username2'}}->[2];
+
        my $rating2_1 = $ratings{$ref->{'team2_username1'}}->[0];
        my $rd2_1 = $ratings{$ref->{'team2_username1'}}->[1];
+       my $age2_1 = $ref->{'eptime'} - $ratings{$ref->{'team2_username1'}}->[2];
+
        my $rating2_2 = $ratings{$ref->{'team2_username2'}}->[0];
        my $rd2_2 = $ratings{$ref->{'team2_username2'}}->[1];
+       my $age2_2 = $ref->{'eptime'} - $ratings{$ref->{'team2_username2'}}->[2];
+       
+       $rd1_1 = foosball::apply_aging($rd1_1, $age1_1 / 86400.0);
+       $rd1_2 = foosball::apply_aging($rd1_2, $age1_2 / 86400.0);
+       $rd2_1 = foosball::apply_aging($rd2_1, $age2_1 / 86400.0);
+       $rd2_2 = foosball::apply_aging($rd2_2, $age2_2 / 86400.0);
+
        my $score1 = $ref->{'score1'};
        my $score2 = $ref->{'score2'};
 
-       # make virtual "team players"
-       my $rating_team1 = 0.5 * ($rating1_1 + $rating1_2);
-       my $rd_team1 = sqrt($rd1_1 * $rd1_1 + $rd1_2 * $rd1_2) / sqrt(2.0);
-       my $rating_team2 = 0.5 * ($rating1_2 + $rating2_2);
-       my $rd_team2 = sqrt($rd2_1 * $rd2_1 + $rd2_2 * $rd2_2) / sqrt(2.0);
-
-       my ($new_t1r, undef) =  foosball::calc_rating($rating_team1, $rd_team1, $rating_team2, $rd_team2, $score1, $score2);
-       my ($new_t2r, undef) =  foosball::calc_rating($rating_team2, $rd_team2, $rating_team1, $rd_team1, $score2, $score1);
-       my $newr1_1 = $rating1_1 + ($new_t1r - $rating_team1);
-       my $newr1_2 = $rating1_2 + ($new_t1r - $rating_team1);
-       my $newr2_1 = $rating2_1 + ($new_t2r - $rating_team2);
-       my $newr2_2 = $rating2_2 + ($new_t2r - $rating_team2);
-
-       my (undef, $newrd1_1) = foosball::calc_rating($rating1_1, $rd1_1, $rating_team2, $rd_team2, $score1, $score2);
-       my (undef, $newrd1_2) = foosball::calc_rating($rating1_2, $rd1_2, $rating_team2, $rd_team2, $score1, $score2);
-       my (undef, $newrd2_1) = foosball::calc_rating($rating2_1, $rd2_1, $rating_team1, $rd_team1, $score2, $score1);
-       my (undef, $newrd2_2) = foosball::calc_rating($rating2_2, $rd2_2, $rating_team1, $rd_team1, $score2, $score1);
+       my ($newr1_1, $newrd1_1) = foosball::calc_rating_double($rating1_1, $rd1_1, $rating1_2, $rd1_2, $rating2_1, $rd2_1, $rating2_2, $rd2_2, $score1, $score2);
+       my ($newr1_2, $newrd1_2) = foosball::calc_rating_double($rating1_2, $rd1_2, $rating1_1, $rd1_1, $rating2_1, $rd2_1, $rating2_2, $rd2_2, $score1, $score2);
+       my ($newr2_1, $newrd2_1) = foosball::calc_rating_double($rating2_1, $rd2_1, $rating2_2, $rd2_2, $rating1_1, $rd1_1, $rating1_2, $rd1_2, $score2, $score1);
+       my ($newr2_2, $newrd2_2) = foosball::calc_rating_double($rating2_2, $rd2_2, $rating2_1, $rd2_1, $rating1_1, $rd1_1, $rating1_2, $rd1_2, $score2, $score1);
 
        printf("%-10s/%-10s - %-10s/%-10s: %u - %u, new ratings %u/%u %u/%u   %u/%u %u/%u\n",
                $ref->{'team1_username1'}, $ref->{'team1_username2'},
@@ -58,19 +58,19 @@ while (my $ref = $q->fetchrow_hashref) {
                $ref->{'score1'}, $ref->{'score2'},
                $newr1_1, $newrd1_1, $newr1_2, $newrd1_2,
                $newr2_1, $newrd2_1, $newr2_2, $newrd2_2);
-       $dbh->do('insert into double_rating values (?,?,?,?)', undef,
-               $ref->{'team1_username1'}, $ref->{'gametime'}, $newr1_1, $newrd1_1);
-       $dbh->do('insert into double_rating values (?,?,?,?)', undef,
-               $ref->{'team1_username2'}, $ref->{'gametime'}, $newr1_2, $newrd1_2);
-       $dbh->do('insert into double_rating values (?,?,?,?)', undef,
-               $ref->{'team2_username1'}, $ref->{'gametime'}, $newr2_1, $newrd2_1);
-       $dbh->do('insert into double_rating values (?,?,?,?)', undef,
-               $ref->{'team2_username2'}, $ref->{'gametime'}, $newr2_2, $newrd2_2);
+       $dbh->do('insert into double_rating values (?,?,?,?,?)', undef,
+               $ref->{'team1_username1'}, $ref->{'gametime'}, $newr1_1, $newrd1_1, $newr1_1-$rating1_1);
+       $dbh->do('insert into double_rating values (?,?,?,?,?)', undef,
+               $ref->{'team1_username2'}, $ref->{'gametime'}, $newr1_2, $newrd1_2, $newr1_2-$rating1_2);
+       $dbh->do('insert into double_rating values (?,?,?,?,?)', undef,
+               $ref->{'team2_username1'}, $ref->{'gametime'}, $newr2_1, $newrd2_1, $newr2_1-$rating2_1);
+       $dbh->do('insert into double_rating values (?,?,?,?,?)', undef,
+               $ref->{'team2_username2'}, $ref->{'gametime'}, $newr2_2, $newrd2_2, $newr2_2-$rating2_2);
 
-       $ratings{$ref->{'team1_username1'}} = [ $newr1_1, $newrd1_1 ];
-       $ratings{$ref->{'team1_username2'}} = [ $newr1_2, $newrd1_2 ];
-       $ratings{$ref->{'team2_username1'}} = [ $newr2_1, $newrd2_1 ];
-       $ratings{$ref->{'team2_username2'}} = [ $newr2_2, $newrd2_2 ];
+       $ratings{$ref->{'team1_username1'}} = [ $newr1_1, $newrd1_1, $ref->{'eptime'} ];
+       $ratings{$ref->{'team1_username2'}} = [ $newr1_2, $newrd1_2, $ref->{'eptime'} ];
+       $ratings{$ref->{'team2_username1'}} = [ $newr2_1, $newrd2_1, $ref->{'eptime'} ];
+       $ratings{$ref->{'team2_username2'}} = [ $newr2_2, $newrd2_2, $ref->{'eptime'} ];
 }
 
 $dbh->commit;