my $q = $dbh->prepare('select *,extract(epoch from gametime) as eptime from single_results order by gametime');
$q->execute;
+# Combined log-likelihood
+my $cll = 0.0;
+
while (my $ref = $q->fetchrow_hashref) {
for my $user (($ref->{'username1'}, $ref->{'username2'})) {
if (!exists($ratings{$user})) {
$rd1 = foosball::apply_aging($rd1, $age1 / 86400.0);
$rd2 = foosball::apply_aging($rd2, $age2 / 86400.0);
- my ($newr1, $newrd1) = foosball::calc_rating($rating1, $rd1, $rating2, $rd2, $score1, $score2);
+ my ($newr1, $newrd1, $likelihood) = foosball::calc_rating($rating1, $rd1, $rating2, $rd2, $score1, $score2);
my ($newr2, $newrd2) = foosball::calc_rating($rating2, $rd2, $rating1, $rd1, $score2, $score1);
- printf("%-10s - %-10s: %u - %u, new ratings %u/%u %u/%u\n",
+ $cll += log($likelihood);
+
+ printf("%-10s - %-10s: %u - %u, new ratings %u/%u %u/%u [$likelihood]\n",
$ref->{'username1'}, $ref->{'username2'}, $ref->{'score1'},
$ref->{'score2'}, $newr1, $newrd1, $newr2, $newrd2);
$dbh->do('insert into single_rating values (?,?,?,?,?)', undef,
$dbh->commit;
$dbh->disconnect;
+
+printf "\nCombined negative log-likelihood (smaller value means a better model): %f\n",
+ -$cll;