Adjusted initial parameters for maximum prediction power; in particular,

[foosball] / recalc-single-result.pl

diff --git a/recalc-single-result.pl b/recalc-single-result.pl
index 8c981c2b84c72d1c24d0da944ba367b4576ffe95..d2c7a69e774d84103d8bba31513aad648805191d 100755 (executable)
--- a/recalc-single-result.pl
+++ b/recalc-single-result.pl
@@ -5,44 +5,88 @@ use DBI;
 use CGI;
 use CGI::Carp qw(fatalsToBrowser);
 require 'foosball.pm';
+use foosrank;
+no warnings 'once';
+
+$| = 1;
 
 my $dbh = foosball::db_connect();
 $dbh->{AutoCommit} = 0;
 
-$dbh->do('delete from single_rating');
-
-my %ratings = ();
-my $q = $dbh->prepare('select * from single_results order by gametime');
+my $q = $dbh->prepare('select *,extract(epoch from gametime) as eptime from single_results order by gametime');
 $q->execute;
+my $games = $q->fetchall_arrayref({});
 
-while (my $ref = $q->fetchrow_hashref) {
-       for my $user (($ref->{'username1'}, $ref->{'username2'})) {
-               if (!exists($ratings{$user})) {
-                       $ratings{$user} = [ 1500, 350 ];
-               }
+my $dryrun = 0;
+my @parms = ();
+if (defined($ARGV[0])) {
+       $dryrun = 1;
+       for my $arg (@ARGV) {
+               my ($rd, $c) = split /,/, $arg;
+               push @parms, [ $rd, $c ];
        }
-       
-       my $rating1 = $ratings{$ref->{'username1'}}->[0];
-       my $rd1 = $ratings{$ref->{'username1'}}->[1];
-       my $rating2 = $ratings{$ref->{'username2'}}->[0];
-       my $rd2 = $ratings{$ref->{'username2'}}->[1];
-       my $score1 = $ref->{'score1'};
-       my $score2 = $ref->{'score2'};
-
-       my ($newr1, $newrd1) = foosball::calc_rating($rating1, $rd1, $rating2, $rd2, $score1, $score2);
-       my ($newr2, $newrd2) = foosball::calc_rating($rating2, $rd2, $rating1, $rd1, $score2, $score1);
-
-       printf("%-10s - %-10s: %u - %u, new ratings %u/%u %u/%u\n",
-               $ref->{'username1'}, $ref->{'username2'}, $ref->{'score1'},
-               $ref->{'score2'}, $newr1, $newrd1, $newr2, $newrd2);
-       $dbh->do('insert into single_rating values (?,?,?,?)', undef,
-               $ref->{'username1'}, $ref->{'gametime'}, $newr1, $newrd1);
-       $dbh->do('insert into single_rating values (?,?,?,?)', undef,
-               $ref->{'username2'}, $ref->{'gametime'}, $newr2, $newrd2);
-
-       $ratings{$ref->{'username1'}} = [ $newr1, $newrd1 ];
-       $ratings{$ref->{'username2'}} = [ $newr2, $newrd2 ];
+} else {
+       @parms = ([ $foosball::initial_rd, $foosball::c ]);
 }
 
-$dbh->commit;
+for my $parm (@parms) {
+       $foosball::initial_rd = $parm->[0];
+       $foosball::c = $parm->[1];
+
+       $dbh->do('delete from single_rating') unless $dryrun;
+
+       my %ratings = ();
+
+       # Combined log-likelihood
+       my $cll = 0.0;
+
+       for my $ref (@$games) {
+               for my $user (($ref->{'username1'}, $ref->{'username2'})) {
+                       if (!exists($ratings{$user})) {
+                               $ratings{$user} = [ $foosball::initial_rating, $foosball::initial_rd, 0 ];
+                       }
+               }
+               
+               my $rating1 = $ratings{$ref->{'username1'}}->[0];
+               my $rd1 = $ratings{$ref->{'username1'}}->[1];
+               my $age1 = $ref->{'eptime'} - $ratings{$ref->{'username1'}}->[2];
+
+               my $rating2 = $ratings{$ref->{'username2'}}->[0];
+               my $rd2 = $ratings{$ref->{'username2'}}->[1];
+               my $age2 = $ref->{'eptime'} - $ratings{$ref->{'username2'}}->[2];
+
+               my $score1 = $ref->{'score1'};
+               my $score2 = $ref->{'score2'};
+
+               $rd1 = foosball::apply_aging($rd1, $age1 / 86400.0);
+               $rd2 = foosball::apply_aging($rd2, $age2 / 86400.0);
+
+               my ($newr1, $newrd1, $likelihood) = foosrank::compute_new_rating($rating1, $rd1, $rating2, $rd2, $score1, $score2);
+               my ($newr2, $newrd2) = foosrank::compute_new_rating($rating2, $rd2, $rating1, $rd1, $score2, $score1);
+
+               $cll += log($likelihood);
+
+               unless ($dryrun) {
+                       printf("%-10s - %-10s: %u - %u, new ratings %u/%u %u/%u [$likelihood]\n",
+                               $ref->{'username1'}, $ref->{'username2'}, $ref->{'score1'},
+                               $ref->{'score2'}, $newr1, $newrd1, $newr2, $newrd2);
+                       $dbh->do('insert into single_rating values (?,?,?,?,?)', undef,
+                               $ref->{'username1'}, $ref->{'gametime'}, $newr1, $newrd1, $newr1-$rating1);
+                       $dbh->do('insert into single_rating values (?,?,?,?,?)', undef,
+                               $ref->{'username2'}, $ref->{'gametime'}, $newr2, $newrd2, $newr2-$rating2);
+               }
+
+               $ratings{$ref->{'username1'}} = [ $newr1, $newrd1, $ref->{'eptime'} ];
+               $ratings{$ref->{'username2'}} = [ $newr2, $newrd2, $ref->{'eptime'} ];
+       }
+
+       $dbh->commit unless $dryrun;
+
+       if ($dryrun) {
+               printf "%f %f %f\n", $parm->[0], $parm->[1], -$cll;
+       } else {
+               printf "\nCombined negative log-likelihood (smaller value means a better model): %f\n",
+                       -$cll;
+       }
+}
 $dbh->disconnect;