use CGI;
use CGI::Carp qw(fatalsToBrowser);
require 'foosball.pm';
+use foosrank;
+no warnings 'once';
+
+$| = 1;
my $dbh = foosball::db_connect();
$dbh->{AutoCommit} = 0;
-$dbh->do('delete from single_rating');
-
-my %ratings = ();
-my $q = $dbh->prepare('select * from single_results order by gametime');
+my $q = $dbh->prepare('select *,extract(epoch from gametime) as eptime from single_results order by gametime');
$q->execute;
+my $games = $q->fetchall_arrayref({});
-while (my $ref = $q->fetchrow_hashref) {
- for my $user (($ref->{'username1'}, $ref->{'username2'})) {
- if (!exists($ratings{$user})) {
- $ratings{$user} = [ 1500, 350 ];
- }
+my $dryrun = 0;
+my @parms = ();
+if (defined($ARGV[0])) {
+ $dryrun = 1;
+ for my $arg (@ARGV) {
+ my ($rd, $c) = split /,/, $arg;
+ push @parms, [ $rd, $c ];
}
-
- my $rating1 = $ratings{$ref->{'username1'}}->[0];
- my $rd1 = $ratings{$ref->{'username1'}}->[1];
- my $rating2 = $ratings{$ref->{'username2'}}->[0];
- my $rd2 = $ratings{$ref->{'username2'}}->[1];
- my $score1 = $ref->{'score1'};
- my $score2 = $ref->{'score2'};
-
- my ($newr1, $newrd1) = foosball::calc_rating($rating1, $rd1, $rating2, $rd2, $score1, $score2);
- my ($newr2, $newrd2) = foosball::calc_rating($rating2, $rd2, $rating1, $rd1, $score2, $score1);
-
- printf("%-10s - %-10s: %u - %u, new ratings %u/%u %u/%u\n",
- $ref->{'username1'}, $ref->{'username2'}, $ref->{'score1'},
- $ref->{'score2'}, $newr1, $newrd1, $newr2, $newrd2);
- $dbh->do('insert into single_rating values (?,?,?,?)', undef,
- $ref->{'username1'}, $ref->{'gametime'}, $newr1, $newrd1);
- $dbh->do('insert into single_rating values (?,?,?,?)', undef,
- $ref->{'username2'}, $ref->{'gametime'}, $newr2, $newrd2);
-
- $ratings{$ref->{'username1'}} = [ $newr1, $newrd1 ];
- $ratings{$ref->{'username2'}} = [ $newr2, $newrd2 ];
+} else {
+ @parms = ([ $foosball::initial_rd, $foosball::c ]);
}
-$dbh->commit;
+for my $parm (@parms) {
+ $foosball::initial_rd = $parm->[0];
+ $foosball::c = $parm->[1];
+
+ $dbh->do('delete from single_rating') unless $dryrun;
+
+ my %ratings = ();
+
+ # Combined log-likelihood
+ my $cll = 0.0;
+
+ for my $ref (@$games) {
+ for my $user (($ref->{'username1'}, $ref->{'username2'})) {
+ if (!exists($ratings{$user})) {
+ $ratings{$user} = [ $foosball::initial_rating, $foosball::initial_rd, 0 ];
+ }
+ }
+
+ my $rating1 = $ratings{$ref->{'username1'}}->[0];
+ my $rd1 = $ratings{$ref->{'username1'}}->[1];
+ my $age1 = $ref->{'eptime'} - $ratings{$ref->{'username1'}}->[2];
+
+ my $rating2 = $ratings{$ref->{'username2'}}->[0];
+ my $rd2 = $ratings{$ref->{'username2'}}->[1];
+ my $age2 = $ref->{'eptime'} - $ratings{$ref->{'username2'}}->[2];
+
+ my $score1 = $ref->{'score1'};
+ my $score2 = $ref->{'score2'};
+
+ $rd1 = foosball::apply_aging($rd1, $age1 / 86400.0);
+ $rd2 = foosball::apply_aging($rd2, $age2 / 86400.0);
+
+ my ($newr1, $newrd1, $likelihood) = foosrank::compute_new_rating($rating1, $rd1, $rating2, $rd2, $score1, $score2);
+ my ($newr2, $newrd2) = foosrank::compute_new_rating($rating2, $rd2, $rating1, $rd1, $score2, $score1);
+
+ $cll += log($likelihood);
+
+ unless ($dryrun) {
+ printf("%-10s - %-10s: %u - %u, new ratings %u/%u %u/%u [$likelihood]\n",
+ $ref->{'username1'}, $ref->{'username2'}, $ref->{'score1'},
+ $ref->{'score2'}, $newr1, $newrd1, $newr2, $newrd2);
+ $dbh->do('insert into single_rating values (?,?,?,?,?)', undef,
+ $ref->{'username1'}, $ref->{'gametime'}, $newr1, $newrd1, $newr1-$rating1);
+ $dbh->do('insert into single_rating values (?,?,?,?,?)', undef,
+ $ref->{'username2'}, $ref->{'gametime'}, $newr2, $newrd2, $newr2-$rating2);
+ }
+
+ $ratings{$ref->{'username1'}} = [ $newr1, $newrd1, $ref->{'eptime'} ];
+ $ratings{$ref->{'username2'}} = [ $newr2, $newrd2, $ref->{'eptime'} ];
+ }
+
+ $dbh->commit unless $dryrun;
+
+ if ($dryrun) {
+ printf "%f %f %f\n", $parm->[0], $parm->[1], -$cll;
+ } else {
+ printf "\nCombined negative log-likelihood (smaller value means a better model): %f\n",
+ -$cll;
+ }
+}
$dbh->disconnect;