Make the initial rating/RD constants instead of hard-coded values.

diff --git a/foosball.pm b/foosball.pm
index 58e468c6669ea3ac0c5dfbfbfcc1fd9a39578885..b40b9fda17b82ac92e7c97586ac65bb7ebc99d5b 100644 (file)
--- a/foosball.pm
+++ b/foosball.pm
@@ -75,11 +75,11 @@ sub calc_rating {
        my ($rating1, $rd1, $rating2, $rd2, $score1, $score2) = @_;
        my $result = `/srv/foosball.sesse.net/foosrank $rating1 $rd1 $rating2 $rd2 $score1 $score2`;
        chomp $result;
-       my ($newr1, $newrd1) = split / /, $result;
+       my ($newr1, $newrd1, $likelihood) = split / /, $result;
 
        $newrd1 = 30.0 if ($newrd1 < 30.0);
 
-       return ($newr1, $newrd1);
+       return ($newr1, $newrd1, $likelihood);
 }
 
 sub calc_rating_double {

diff --git a/foosrank.cpp b/foosrank.cpp
index 99f88b0d5909699630d382785bb59385f5757371..67aee581cbe05f2d8d2064d5e997ab262453706b 100644 (file)
--- a/foosrank.cpp
+++ b/foosrank.cpp
@@ -484,7 +484,11 @@ int main(int argc, char **argv)
                int score2 = atoi(argv[10]);
                double mu, sigma;
                compute_new_double_rating(mu1, sigma1, mu2, sigma2, mu3, sigma3, mu4, sigma4, score1, score2, mu, sigma);
-               printf("%f %f\n", mu, sigma);
+               if (score1 > score2) {
+                       printf("%f %f %f\n", mu, sigma, prob_score(score1, score2, mu3+mu4-(mu1+mu2)));
+               } else {
+                       printf("%f %f %f\n", mu, sigma, prob_score(score2, score1, mu1+mu2-(mu3+mu4)));
+               }
        } else if (argc > 8) {
                double mu3 = atof(argv[5]);
                double sigma3 = atof(argv[6]);
@@ -520,7 +524,12 @@ int main(int argc, char **argv)
                int score2 = atoi(argv[6]);
                double mu, sigma;
                compute_new_rating(mu1, sigma1, mu2, sigma2, score1, score2, mu, sigma);
-               printf("%f %f\n", mu, sigma);
+
+               if (score1 > score2) {
+                       printf("%f %f %f\n", mu, sigma, prob_score(score1, score2, mu2-mu1));
+               } else {
+                       printf("%f %f %f\n", mu, sigma, prob_score(score2, score1, mu1-mu2));
+               }
        } else {
                int k = atoi(argv[5]);
 

diff --git a/recalc-single-result.pl b/recalc-single-result.pl
index c67be84b36e84a68e3fba5bd596e57b2e4b460a1..679478791027ecb283f9ea6a88028b9ac8fc3d19 100755 (executable)
--- a/recalc-single-result.pl
+++ b/recalc-single-result.pl
@@ -15,6 +15,9 @@ my %ratings = ();
 my $q = $dbh->prepare('select *,extract(epoch from gametime) as eptime from single_results order by gametime');
 $q->execute;
 
+# Combined log-likelihood
+my $cll = 0.0;
+
 while (my $ref = $q->fetchrow_hashref) {
        for my $user (($ref->{'username1'}, $ref->{'username2'})) {
                if (!exists($ratings{$user})) {
@@ -36,10 +39,12 @@ while (my $ref = $q->fetchrow_hashref) {
        $rd1 = foosball::apply_aging($rd1, $age1 / 86400.0);
        $rd2 = foosball::apply_aging($rd2, $age2 / 86400.0);
 
-       my ($newr1, $newrd1) = foosball::calc_rating($rating1, $rd1, $rating2, $rd2, $score1, $score2);
+       my ($newr1, $newrd1, $likelihood) = foosball::calc_rating($rating1, $rd1, $rating2, $rd2, $score1, $score2);
        my ($newr2, $newrd2) = foosball::calc_rating($rating2, $rd2, $rating1, $rd1, $score2, $score1);
 
-       printf("%-10s - %-10s: %u - %u, new ratings %u/%u %u/%u\n",
+       $cll += log($likelihood);
+
+       printf("%-10s - %-10s: %u - %u, new ratings %u/%u %u/%u [$likelihood]\n",
                $ref->{'username1'}, $ref->{'username2'}, $ref->{'score1'},
                $ref->{'score2'}, $newr1, $newrd1, $newr2, $newrd2);
        $dbh->do('insert into single_rating values (?,?,?,?,?)', undef,
@@ -53,3 +58,6 @@ while (my $ref = $q->fetchrow_hashref) {
 
 $dbh->commit;
 $dbh->disconnect;
+
+printf "\nCombined negative log-likelihood (smaller value means a better model): %f\n",
+       -$cll;