6 use CGI::Carp qw( fatalsToBrowser );
14 require '../config.pm';
15 require '../common.pm';
19 my $dbh = DBI->connect($config::local_connstr, $config::local_username, $config::local_password)
20 or die "connect: " . $DBI::errstr;
21 $dbh->{AutoCommit} = 0;
22 $dbh->{RaiseError} = 1;
26 binmode STDOUT, ':utf8';
30 my %ratings_stddev = ();
36 return HTML::Entities::encode_entities(shift);
41 return int(255.0 * ($x ** (1.80)));
46 my $ref = $dbh->selectrow_hashref('SELECT MAX(sesong) AS max_sesong FROM fotballserier');
47 return $ref->{'max_sesong'};
51 my ($dbh, $season) = @_;
55 my $q = $dbh->prepare('SELECT DISTINCT(divisjon) FROM fotballserier WHERE sesong=? ORDER BY divisjon');
58 while (my $ref = $q->fetchrow_hashref) {
59 push @divisions, $ref->{'divisjon'};
65 sub get_subdivisions {
66 my ($dbh, $season, $division) = @_;
68 my @subdivisions = ();
70 my $q = $dbh->prepare('SELECT DISTINCT(avdeling) FROM fotballserier WHERE sesong=? AND divisjon=? ORDER BY avdeling');
71 $q->execute($season, $division);
73 while (my $ref = $q->fetchrow_hashref) {
74 push @subdivisions, $ref->{'avdeling'};
80 sub print_division_selector {
81 my ($dbh, $divisions, $subdivisions, $division, $subdivision) = @_;
84 <form method="get" action="/">
87 my $max_division = $divisions->[(scalar @$divisions) - 1];
91 <select name="divisjon" onchange="form.submit();">
94 for my $d (@$divisions) {
95 if ($d == $division) {
96 print " <option value=\"$d\" selected=\"selected\">$d</option>\n";
98 print " <option value=\"$d\">$d</option>\n";
105 <select name="avdeling" onchange="form.submit();">
108 for my $sd (@$subdivisions) {
109 if ($sd == $subdivision) {
110 print " <option value=\"$sd\" selected=\"selected\">$sd</option>\n";
112 print " <option value=\"$sd\">$sd</option>\n";
118 <input type="submit" value="Vis" />
124 sub get_covariance_matrix {
125 my ($dbh, @players) = @_;
127 my $player_sql = '{' . join(',', @players ) . '}';
128 my $q = $dbh->prepare('SELECT * FROM covariance WHERE player1=ANY(?::smallint[]) AND player2=ANY(?::smallint[])', { pg_prepare_now => 0 });
129 $q->execute($player_sql, $player_sql);
132 while (my $ref = $q->fetchrow_hashref) {
133 $cov->{$ref->{'player1'}}{$ref->{'player2'}} = $ref->{'cov'};
139 sub write_parms_to_file {
140 my ($used_ratings, $used_cov) = @_;
142 POSIX::setlocale(&POSIX::LC_ALL, 'C');
144 my $tmpnam = POSIX::tmpnam();
145 open MCCALC, ">", $tmpnam
146 or die "$tmpnam: $!";
148 printf MCCALC "%f\n", $match_stddev;
149 printf MCCALC "%d\n", scalar keys %players;
151 for my $id (keys %players) {
152 my $rating = $used_ratings->{$id} // 500.0;
153 printf MCCALC "%s %f\n", $id, $rating;
157 for my $id1 (keys %players) {
158 for my $id2 (keys %players) {
160 printf MCCALC "%f ", ($used_cov->{$id1}{$id2} // $parms{-3});
162 printf MCCALC "%f ", ($used_cov->{$id1}{$id2} // 0.0);
168 for my $match (@matches) {
169 printf MCCALC "%s %s %d %d\n", $match->[0], $match->[1], $match->[2], $match->[3];
173 POSIX::setlocale(&POSIX::LC_ALL, 'nb_NO.UTF-8');
179 my ($lowest_division, $used_ratings, $used_cov) = @_;
188 my $tmpnam = write_parms_to_file($used_ratings, $used_cov);
191 open MCCALC, "$config::base_dir/mcwordfeud $trials < $tmpnam |"
197 my $player = sprintf "%s (%.0f ± %.0f)", $players{$id}, ($ratings{$id} // 500.0), ($ratings_stddev{$id} // $parms{-3});
198 $prob{$player} = [ @x[1..$#x] ];
203 my $num_games = scalar keys %prob;
204 for my $i (1..$num_games) {
205 print " <th>$i.</th>\n";
207 print " <th>NEDRYKK</th>\n" unless ($lowest_division);
210 for my $player (sort { $a cmp $b } keys %prob) {
212 print " <th>$player</th>\n";
214 for my $i (1..$num_games) {
215 my $pn = $prob{$player}->[$i - 1] / $trials;
217 my $r = color(1.0 - $pn / 3);
218 my $g = color(1.0 - $pn / 3);
223 } elsif ($i >= $num_games - 1 && !$lowest_division) {
227 printf " <td style=\"background-color: rgb($r, $g, $b)\" class=\"num\">%.1f%%</td>\n", $pn * 100.0;
230 unless ($lowest_division) {
231 my $pn = ($prob{$player}->[$num_games - 1] + $prob{$player}->[$num_games - 2]) / $trials;
234 my $g = color(1.0 - $pn / 3);
235 my $b = color(1.0 - $pn / 3);
236 printf " <td style=\"background-color: rgb($r, $g, $b)\" class=\"num\">%.1f%%</td>\n", $pn * 100.0;
246 # Get auxillary parameters
247 my $q = $dbh->prepare('SELECT * FROM ratings WHERE id < 0');
250 while (my $ref = $q->fetchrow_hashref) {
251 $parms{$ref->{'id'}} = $ref->{'rating'};
253 $match_stddev = $parms{-2} * sqrt(2.0);
256 my $division = $cgi->param('divisjon') // -1;
257 my $subdivision = $cgi->param('avdeling') // -1;
258 my $last_division = 0;
260 POSIX::setlocale(&POSIX::LC_ALL, 'nb_NO.UTF-8');
262 print $cgi->header(-type=>'text/html; charset=utf-8', -expires=>'now');
263 printf <<"EOF", $match_stddev;
264 <?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" ?>
266 html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.1//EN"
267 "http://www.w3.org/TR/xhtml11/DTD/xhtml11.dtd">
268 <html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" xml:lang="no">
270 <title>WLoH-plasseringsannsynlighetsberegning</title>
271 <link rel="stylesheet" href="/style" type="text/css" />
274 <h1>WLoH-plasseringsannsynlighetsberegning</h1>
276 <p><em>Dette er et hobbyprosjekt fra tredjepart, og ikke en offisiell del av
277 <a href="http://wordfeud.aasmul.net/">Wordfeud Leage of Honour</a>.</em></p>
279 <p>Beregningen tar ikke hensyn til ujevn spillestyrke, ting som er sagt i forumet e.l.;
280 den antar at samtlige uspilte kamper trekkes fra en normalfordeling med standardavvik
281 %.1f poeng. Sannsynlighetene kan summere til andre tall enn 100%% pga. avrunding.
282 Tallene vil variere litt fra gang til gang fordi utregningen skjer ved randomisering.</p>
284 <p>Spillerne er sortert etter nick.</p>
287 my $season = get_max_season($dbh);
288 my @divisions = get_divisions($dbh, $season);
289 $division = 1 if (!grep { $_ == $division } @divisions);
290 my @subdivisions = get_subdivisions($dbh, $season, $division);
291 $subdivision = 1 if (!grep { $_ == $subdivision } @subdivisions);
293 print_division_selector($dbh, \@divisions, \@subdivisions, $division, $subdivision);
295 # Get players and ratings
296 my $sum_rating = 0.0;
298 $q = $dbh->prepare('SELECT fotballdeltagere.id,fotballdeltagere.navn,rating,rating_stddev FROM fotballdeltagere JOIN fotballserier ON fotballdeltagere.serie=fotballserier.nr LEFT JOIN ratings ON fotballdeltagere.id=ratings.id WHERE sesong=? AND divisjon=? AND avdeling=?');
299 $q->execute($season, $division, $subdivision);
301 while (my $ref = $q->fetchrow_hashref) {
302 my $id = $ref->{'id'};
303 $players{$id} = sanitize(Encode::decode_utf8($ref->{'navn'}));
304 $ratings{$id} = $ref->{'rating'};
305 $ratings_stddev{$id} = $ref->{'rating_stddev'};
306 $sum_rating += $ref->{'rating'};
312 d1.id AS p1, d2.id AS p2, maalfor AS score1, maalmot AS score2
313 FROM fotballresultater r
314 JOIN fotballserier s ON r.serie=s.nr
315 JOIN fotballdeltagere d1 ON r.lagrecno=d1.nr AND r.serie=d1.serie
316 JOIN fotballdeltagere d2 ON r.motstander=d2.nr AND r.serie=d2.serie
318 sesong=? AND divisjon=? AND avdeling=?
319 AND lagrecno > motstander
321 $q->execute($season, $division, $subdivision);
323 while (my $ref = $q->fetchrow_hashref) {
324 push @matches, [ $ref->{'p1'}, $ref->{'p2'}, $ref->{'score1'}, $ref->{'score2'} ];
328 my $cov = get_covariance_matrix($dbh, keys %players);
330 my $max_division = $divisions[$#divisions];
331 my $lowest_division = ($division == $max_division);
332 make_table($lowest_division, {}, {});
335 <p>Under er en variant som tar relativ spillestyrke med i beregningen;
336 se <a href="/rating">ratingsiden</a>.</p>
339 make_table($lowest_division, \%ratings, $cov);
341 my $avg_rating = $sum_rating / scalar keys %players;
342 printf " <p>Gjennomsnittlig rating i denne avdelingen er <strong>%.1f</strong>.</p>\n", $avg_rating;
344 wloh_common::output_last_sync($dbh);