Take standard deviation of estimated mu into account when doing MC simulation.

[wloh] / www / index.pl

diff --git a/www/index.pl b/www/index.pl
index 604edc263dd4aa184ccab9d9decf387967948562..d1943ae08b51af076fbff942e9ca48642bbf8090 100755 (executable)
--- a/www/index.pl
+++ b/www/index.pl
@@ -25,6 +25,7 @@ binmode STDOUT, ':utf8';
 
 my %players = ();
 my %ratings = ();
+my %ratings_stddev = ();
 my @matches = ();
 my %parms = ();
 my $match_stddev;
@@ -39,7 +40,7 @@ sub color {
 }
 
 sub make_table {
-       my ($lowest_division, $used_ratings) = @_;
+       my ($lowest_division, $used_ratings, $used_ratings_stddev) = @_;
 
        print <<"EOF";
 
@@ -58,11 +59,9 @@ EOF
        printf MCCALC "%d\n", scalar keys %players;
 
        for my $id (keys %players) {
-               if (exists($used_ratings->{$id}) && defined($used_ratings->{$id})) {
-                       printf MCCALC "%s %f\n", $id, $used_ratings->{$id};
-               } else {
-                       printf MCCALC "%s %f\n", $id, 1500.0;
-               }
+               my $rating = $used_ratings->{$id} // 1500.0;
+               my $rating_stddev = $used_ratings_stddev->{$id} // $parms{-3};
+               printf MCCALC "%s %f %f\n", $id, $rating, $rating_stddev;
        }
 
        for my $match (@matches) {
@@ -80,7 +79,7 @@ EOF
                chomp;
                my @x = split /\s+/;
                my $id = $x[0];
-               my $player = sprintf "%s (%.0f)", $players{$id}, $ratings{$id};
+               my $player = sprintf "%s (%.0f &pm; %.0f)", $players{$id}, ($ratings{$id} // 1500.0), ($ratings_stddev{$id} // $parms{-3});
                $prob{$player} = [ @x[1..$#x] ];
        }
        close MCCALC;
@@ -230,13 +229,14 @@ print <<"EOF";
 EOF
 
 # Get players and ratings
-$q = $dbh->prepare('SELECT fotballdeltagere.id,fotballdeltagere.navn,rating FROM fotballdeltagere JOIN fotballserier ON fotballdeltagere.serie=fotballserier.nr LEFT JOIN ratings ON fotballdeltagere.id=ratings.id WHERE sesong=? AND divisjon=? AND avdeling=?');
+$q = $dbh->prepare('SELECT fotballdeltagere.id,fotballdeltagere.navn,rating,rating_stddev FROM fotballdeltagere JOIN fotballserier ON fotballdeltagere.serie=fotballserier.nr LEFT JOIN ratings ON fotballdeltagere.id=ratings.id WHERE sesong=? AND divisjon=? AND avdeling=?');
 $q->execute($season, $division, $subdivision);
 
 while (my $ref = $q->fetchrow_hashref) {
        my $id = $ref->{'id'};
        $players{$id} = sanitize(Encode::decode_utf8($ref->{'navn'}));
        $ratings{$id} = $ref->{'rating'};
+       $ratings_stddev{$id} = $ref->{'rating_stddev'};
 }
 $q->finish;
 
@@ -259,14 +259,14 @@ while (my $ref = $q->fetchrow_hashref) {
 $q->finish;
 
 my $lowest_division = ($division == $max_division);
-make_table($lowest_division, {});
+make_table($lowest_division, {}, {});
 
 print <<"EOF";
     <p>Under er en variant som tar relativ spillestyrke med i beregningen;
       se <a href="/rating">ratingsiden</a>.</p>
 EOF
 
-make_table($lowest_division, \%ratings);
+make_table($lowest_division, \%ratings, \%ratings_stddev);
 
 print << "EOF";
     </table>