6 use CGI::Carp qw( fatalsToBrowser );
14 require '../config.pm';
15 require '../common.pm';
19 my $dbh = DBI->connect($config::local_connstr, $config::local_username, $config::local_password)
20 or die "connect: " . $DBI::errstr;
21 $dbh->{AutoCommit} = 0;
22 $dbh->{RaiseError} = 1;
26 binmode STDOUT, ':utf8';
30 my %ratings_stddev = ();
36 return HTML::Entities::encode_entities(shift);
41 return int(255.0 * ($x ** (1.80)));
46 my $ref = $dbh->selectrow_hashref('SELECT MAX(sesong) AS max_sesong FROM fotballserier');
47 return $ref->{'max_sesong'};
51 my ($lowest_division, $used_ratings, $used_cov) = @_;
60 POSIX::setlocale(&POSIX::LC_ALL, 'C');
62 my $tmpnam = POSIX::tmpnam();
63 open MCCALC, ">", $tmpnam
66 printf MCCALC "%f\n", $match_stddev;
67 printf MCCALC "%d\n", scalar keys %players;
69 for my $id (keys %players) {
70 my $rating = $used_ratings->{$id} // 500.0;
71 printf MCCALC "%s %f\n", $id, $rating;
75 for my $id1 (keys %players) {
76 for my $id2 (keys %players) {
78 printf MCCALC "%f ", ($used_cov->{$id1}{$id2} // $parms{-3});
80 printf MCCALC "%f ", ($used_cov->{$id1}{$id2} // 0.0);
86 for my $match (@matches) {
87 printf MCCALC "%s %s %d %d\n", $match->[0], $match->[1], $match->[2], $match->[3];
91 POSIX::setlocale(&POSIX::LC_ALL, 'nb_NO.UTF-8');
95 open MCCALC, "$config::base_dir/mcwordfeud $trials < $tmpnam |"
101 my $player = sprintf "%s (%.0f ± %.0f)", $players{$id}, ($ratings{$id} // 500.0), ($ratings_stddev{$id} // $parms{-3});
102 $prob{$player} = [ @x[1..$#x] ];
107 my $num_games = scalar keys %prob;
108 for my $i (1..$num_games) {
109 print " <th>$i.</th>\n";
111 print " <th>NEDRYKK</th>\n" unless ($lowest_division);
114 for my $player (sort { $a cmp $b } keys %prob) {
116 print " <th>$player</th>\n";
118 for my $i (1..$num_games) {
119 my $pn = $prob{$player}->[$i - 1] / $trials;
121 my $r = color(1.0 - $pn / 3);
122 my $g = color(1.0 - $pn / 3);
127 } elsif ($i >= $num_games - 1 && !$lowest_division) {
131 printf " <td style=\"background-color: rgb($r, $g, $b)\" class=\"num\">%.1f%%</td>\n", $pn * 100.0;
134 unless ($lowest_division) {
135 my $pn = ($prob{$player}->[$num_games - 1] + $prob{$player}->[$num_games - 2]) / $trials;
138 my $g = color(1.0 - $pn / 3);
139 my $b = color(1.0 - $pn / 3);
140 printf " <td style=\"background-color: rgb($r, $g, $b)\" class=\"num\">%.1f%%</td>\n", $pn * 100.0;
150 # Get auxillary parameters
151 my $q = $dbh->prepare('SELECT * FROM ratings WHERE id < 0');
154 while (my $ref = $q->fetchrow_hashref) {
155 $parms{$ref->{'id'}} = $ref->{'rating'};
157 $match_stddev = $parms{-2} * sqrt(2.0);
160 my $division = $cgi->param('divisjon') // -1;
161 my $subdivision = $cgi->param('avdeling') // -1;
162 my $last_division = 0;
164 POSIX::setlocale(&POSIX::LC_ALL, 'nb_NO.UTF-8');
166 print $cgi->header(-type=>'text/html; charset=utf-8', -expires=>'now');
167 printf <<"EOF", $match_stddev;
168 <?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" ?>
170 html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.1//EN"
171 "http://www.w3.org/TR/xhtml11/DTD/xhtml11.dtd">
172 <html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" xml:lang="no">
174 <title>WLoH-plasseringsannsynlighetsberegning</title>
175 <link rel="stylesheet" href="/style" type="text/css" />
178 <h1>WLoH-plasseringsannsynlighetsberegning</h1>
180 <p><em>Dette er et hobbyprosjekt fra tredjepart, og ikke en offisiell del av
181 <a href="http://wordfeud.aasmul.net/">Wordfeud Leage of Honour</a>.</em></p>
183 <p>Beregningen tar ikke hensyn til ujevn spillestyrke, ting som er sagt i forumet e.l.;
184 den antar at samtlige uspilte kamper trekkes fra en normalfordeling med standardavvik
185 %.1f poeng. Sannsynlighetene kan summere til andre tall enn 100%% pga. avrunding.
186 Tallene vil variere litt fra gang til gang fordi utregningen skjer ved randomisering.</p>
188 <p>Spillerne er sortert etter nick.</p>
190 <form method="get" action="/">
193 my $season = get_max_season($dbh);
197 <select name="divisjon" onchange="form.submit();">
200 $q = $dbh->prepare('SELECT DISTINCT(divisjon) FROM fotballserier WHERE sesong=? ORDER BY divisjon');
201 $q->execute($season);
203 my $found_division = 0;
206 while (my $ref = $q->fetchrow_hashref) {
207 my $d = $ref->{'divisjon'};
208 if ($d == $division) {
209 print " <option value=\"$d\" selected=\"selected\">$d</option>\n";
212 print " <option value=\"$d\">$d</option>\n";
217 $division = 1 if (!$found_division);
222 <select name="avdeling" onchange="form.submit();">
225 $q = $dbh->prepare('SELECT DISTINCT(avdeling) FROM fotballserier WHERE sesong=? AND divisjon=? ORDER BY avdeling');
226 $q->execute($season, $division);
228 my $found_subdivision = 0;
230 while (my $ref = $q->fetchrow_hashref) {
231 my $sd = $ref->{'avdeling'};
232 if ($sd == $subdivision) {
233 print " <option value=\"$sd\" selected=\"selected\">$sd</option>\n";
234 $found_subdivision = 1;
236 print " <option value=\"$sd\">$sd</option>\n";
240 $subdivision = 1 if (!$found_subdivision);
244 <input type="submit" value="Vis" />
249 # Get players and ratings
250 my $sum_rating = 0.0;
252 $q = $dbh->prepare('SELECT fotballdeltagere.id,fotballdeltagere.navn,rating,rating_stddev FROM fotballdeltagere JOIN fotballserier ON fotballdeltagere.serie=fotballserier.nr LEFT JOIN ratings ON fotballdeltagere.id=ratings.id WHERE sesong=? AND divisjon=? AND avdeling=?');
253 $q->execute($season, $division, $subdivision);
255 while (my $ref = $q->fetchrow_hashref) {
256 my $id = $ref->{'id'};
257 $players{$id} = sanitize(Encode::decode_utf8($ref->{'navn'}));
258 $ratings{$id} = $ref->{'rating'};
259 $ratings_stddev{$id} = $ref->{'rating_stddev'};
260 $sum_rating += $ref->{'rating'};
266 d1.id AS p1, d2.id AS p2, maalfor AS score1, maalmot AS score2
267 FROM fotballresultater r
268 JOIN fotballserier s ON r.serie=s.nr
269 JOIN fotballdeltagere d1 ON r.lagrecno=d1.nr AND r.serie=d1.serie
270 JOIN fotballdeltagere d2 ON r.motstander=d2.nr AND r.serie=d2.serie
272 sesong=? AND divisjon=? AND avdeling=?
273 AND lagrecno > motstander
275 $q->execute($season, $division, $subdivision);
277 while (my $ref = $q->fetchrow_hashref) {
278 push @matches, [ $ref->{'p1'}, $ref->{'p2'}, $ref->{'score1'}, $ref->{'score2'} ];
282 # Pick up covariance matrix
283 my $player_sql = '{' . join(',', keys %players ) . '}';
284 my $q = $dbh->prepare('SELECT * FROM covariance WHERE player1=ANY(?::smallint[]) AND player2=ANY(?::smallint[])', { pg_prepare_now => 0 });
285 $q->execute($player_sql, $player_sql);
288 while (my $ref = $q->fetchrow_hashref) {
289 $cov->{$ref->{'player1'}}{$ref->{'player2'}} = $ref->{'cov'};
292 my $lowest_division = ($division == $max_division);
293 make_table($lowest_division, {}, {});
296 <p>Under er en variant som tar relativ spillestyrke med i beregningen;
297 se <a href="/rating">ratingsiden</a>.</p>
300 make_table($lowest_division, \%ratings, $cov);
302 my $avg_rating = $sum_rating / scalar keys %players;
303 printf " <p>Gjennomsnittlig rating i denne avdelingen er <strong>%.1f</strong>.</p>\n", $avg_rating;
305 wloh_common::output_last_sync($dbh);