6 use CGI::Carp qw( fatalsToBrowser );
14 require '../config.pm';
15 require '../common.pm';
19 my $dbh = DBI->connect($config::local_connstr, $config::local_username, $config::local_password)
20 or die "connect: " . $DBI::errstr;
21 $dbh->{AutoCommit} = 0;
22 $dbh->{RaiseError} = 1;
26 binmode STDOUT, ':utf8';
30 my %ratings_stddev = ();
36 return HTML::Entities::encode_entities(shift);
41 return int(255.0 * ($x ** (1.80)));
46 my $ref = $dbh->selectrow_hashref('SELECT MAX(sesong) AS max_sesong FROM fotballserier');
47 return $ref->{'max_sesong'};
51 my ($dbh, $season) = @_;
55 my $q = $dbh->prepare('SELECT DISTINCT(divisjon) FROM fotballserier WHERE sesong=? ORDER BY divisjon');
58 while (my $ref = $q->fetchrow_hashref) {
59 push @divisions, $ref->{'divisjon'};
65 sub get_subdivisions {
66 my ($dbh, $season, $division) = @_;
68 my @subdivisions = ();
70 my $q = $dbh->prepare('SELECT DISTINCT(avdeling) FROM fotballserier WHERE sesong=? AND divisjon=? ORDER BY avdeling');
71 $q->execute($season, $division);
73 while (my $ref = $q->fetchrow_hashref) {
74 push @subdivisions, $ref->{'avdeling'};
80 sub print_division_selector {
81 my ($dbh, $divisions, $subdivisions, $division, $subdivision) = @_;
84 <form method="get" action="/">
87 my $max_division = $divisions->[(scalar @$divisions) - 1];
91 <select name="divisjon" onchange="form.submit();">
94 for my $d (@$divisions) {
95 if ($d == $division) {
96 print " <option value=\"$d\" selected=\"selected\">$d</option>\n";
98 print " <option value=\"$d\">$d</option>\n";
105 <select name="avdeling" onchange="form.submit();">
108 for my $sd (@$subdivisions) {
109 if ($sd == $subdivision) {
110 print " <option value=\"$sd\" selected=\"selected\">$sd</option>\n";
112 print " <option value=\"$sd\">$sd</option>\n";
118 <input type="submit" value="Vis" />
124 sub get_covariance_matrix {
125 my ($dbh, @players) = @_;
127 my $player_sql = '{' . join(',', @players ) . '}';
128 my $q = $dbh->prepare('SELECT * FROM covariance WHERE player1=ANY(?::smallint[]) AND player2=ANY(?::smallint[])', { pg_prepare_now => 0 });
129 $q->execute($player_sql, $player_sql);
132 while (my $ref = $q->fetchrow_hashref) {
133 $cov->{$ref->{'player1'}}{$ref->{'player2'}} = $ref->{'cov'};
140 my ($lowest_division, $used_ratings, $used_cov) = @_;
149 POSIX::setlocale(&POSIX::LC_ALL, 'C');
151 my $tmpnam = POSIX::tmpnam();
152 open MCCALC, ">", $tmpnam
153 or die "$tmpnam: $!";
155 printf MCCALC "%f\n", $match_stddev;
156 printf MCCALC "%d\n", scalar keys %players;
158 for my $id (keys %players) {
159 my $rating = $used_ratings->{$id} // 500.0;
160 printf MCCALC "%s %f\n", $id, $rating;
164 for my $id1 (keys %players) {
165 for my $id2 (keys %players) {
167 printf MCCALC "%f ", ($used_cov->{$id1}{$id2} // $parms{-3});
169 printf MCCALC "%f ", ($used_cov->{$id1}{$id2} // 0.0);
175 for my $match (@matches) {
176 printf MCCALC "%s %s %d %d\n", $match->[0], $match->[1], $match->[2], $match->[3];
180 POSIX::setlocale(&POSIX::LC_ALL, 'nb_NO.UTF-8');
184 open MCCALC, "$config::base_dir/mcwordfeud $trials < $tmpnam |"
190 my $player = sprintf "%s (%.0f ± %.0f)", $players{$id}, ($ratings{$id} // 500.0), ($ratings_stddev{$id} // $parms{-3});
191 $prob{$player} = [ @x[1..$#x] ];
196 my $num_games = scalar keys %prob;
197 for my $i (1..$num_games) {
198 print " <th>$i.</th>\n";
200 print " <th>NEDRYKK</th>\n" unless ($lowest_division);
203 for my $player (sort { $a cmp $b } keys %prob) {
205 print " <th>$player</th>\n";
207 for my $i (1..$num_games) {
208 my $pn = $prob{$player}->[$i - 1] / $trials;
210 my $r = color(1.0 - $pn / 3);
211 my $g = color(1.0 - $pn / 3);
216 } elsif ($i >= $num_games - 1 && !$lowest_division) {
220 printf " <td style=\"background-color: rgb($r, $g, $b)\" class=\"num\">%.1f%%</td>\n", $pn * 100.0;
223 unless ($lowest_division) {
224 my $pn = ($prob{$player}->[$num_games - 1] + $prob{$player}->[$num_games - 2]) / $trials;
227 my $g = color(1.0 - $pn / 3);
228 my $b = color(1.0 - $pn / 3);
229 printf " <td style=\"background-color: rgb($r, $g, $b)\" class=\"num\">%.1f%%</td>\n", $pn * 100.0;
239 # Get auxillary parameters
240 my $q = $dbh->prepare('SELECT * FROM ratings WHERE id < 0');
243 while (my $ref = $q->fetchrow_hashref) {
244 $parms{$ref->{'id'}} = $ref->{'rating'};
246 $match_stddev = $parms{-2} * sqrt(2.0);
249 my $division = $cgi->param('divisjon') // -1;
250 my $subdivision = $cgi->param('avdeling') // -1;
251 my $last_division = 0;
253 POSIX::setlocale(&POSIX::LC_ALL, 'nb_NO.UTF-8');
255 print $cgi->header(-type=>'text/html; charset=utf-8', -expires=>'now');
256 printf <<"EOF", $match_stddev;
257 <?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" ?>
259 html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.1//EN"
260 "http://www.w3.org/TR/xhtml11/DTD/xhtml11.dtd">
261 <html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" xml:lang="no">
263 <title>WLoH-plasseringsannsynlighetsberegning</title>
264 <link rel="stylesheet" href="/style" type="text/css" />
267 <h1>WLoH-plasseringsannsynlighetsberegning</h1>
269 <p><em>Dette er et hobbyprosjekt fra tredjepart, og ikke en offisiell del av
270 <a href="http://wordfeud.aasmul.net/">Wordfeud Leage of Honour</a>.</em></p>
272 <p>Beregningen tar ikke hensyn til ujevn spillestyrke, ting som er sagt i forumet e.l.;
273 den antar at samtlige uspilte kamper trekkes fra en normalfordeling med standardavvik
274 %.1f poeng. Sannsynlighetene kan summere til andre tall enn 100%% pga. avrunding.
275 Tallene vil variere litt fra gang til gang fordi utregningen skjer ved randomisering.</p>
277 <p>Spillerne er sortert etter nick.</p>
280 my $season = get_max_season($dbh);
281 my @divisions = get_divisions($dbh, $season);
282 $division = 1 if (!grep { $_ == $division } @divisions);
283 my @subdivisions = get_subdivisions($dbh, $season, $division);
284 $subdivision = 1 if (!grep { $_ == $subdivision } @subdivisions);
286 print_division_selector($dbh, \@divisions, \@subdivisions, $division, $subdivision);
288 # Get players and ratings
289 my $sum_rating = 0.0;
291 $q = $dbh->prepare('SELECT fotballdeltagere.id,fotballdeltagere.navn,rating,rating_stddev FROM fotballdeltagere JOIN fotballserier ON fotballdeltagere.serie=fotballserier.nr LEFT JOIN ratings ON fotballdeltagere.id=ratings.id WHERE sesong=? AND divisjon=? AND avdeling=?');
292 $q->execute($season, $division, $subdivision);
294 while (my $ref = $q->fetchrow_hashref) {
295 my $id = $ref->{'id'};
296 $players{$id} = sanitize(Encode::decode_utf8($ref->{'navn'}));
297 $ratings{$id} = $ref->{'rating'};
298 $ratings_stddev{$id} = $ref->{'rating_stddev'};
299 $sum_rating += $ref->{'rating'};
305 d1.id AS p1, d2.id AS p2, maalfor AS score1, maalmot AS score2
306 FROM fotballresultater r
307 JOIN fotballserier s ON r.serie=s.nr
308 JOIN fotballdeltagere d1 ON r.lagrecno=d1.nr AND r.serie=d1.serie
309 JOIN fotballdeltagere d2 ON r.motstander=d2.nr AND r.serie=d2.serie
311 sesong=? AND divisjon=? AND avdeling=?
312 AND lagrecno > motstander
314 $q->execute($season, $division, $subdivision);
316 while (my $ref = $q->fetchrow_hashref) {
317 push @matches, [ $ref->{'p1'}, $ref->{'p2'}, $ref->{'score1'}, $ref->{'score2'} ];
321 my $cov = get_covariance_matrix($dbh, keys %players);
323 my $max_division = $divisions[$#divisions];
324 my $lowest_division = ($division == $max_division);
325 make_table($lowest_division, {}, {});
328 <p>Under er en variant som tar relativ spillestyrke med i beregningen;
329 se <a href="/rating">ratingsiden</a>.</p>
332 make_table($lowest_division, \%ratings, $cov);
334 my $avg_rating = $sum_rating / scalar keys %players;
335 printf " <p>Gjennomsnittlig rating i denne avdelingen er <strong>%.1f</strong>.</p>\n", $avg_rating;
337 wloh_common::output_last_sync($dbh);